Chapel Hill Real Estate Trends + Forecast for 2023

October 31st, 2022

Raleigh Real Estate | Selling | Buying
Chapel Hill Real Estate Trends + Forecast for 2023

Chapel Hill Real Estate Trends + Forecast for 2023

Are you moving to Chapel Hill and interested in learning more about the local housing market? Let's look into real estate trends, pricing trends, and much more! 

Chapel Hill, NC, is often regarded as an excellent place to live and raise a family. It is home to the prestigious and well-known University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. It is only a short distance from Research Triangle Park and Raleigh Durham International Airport. Chapel Hill is mainly located in Orange County and is a town full of diversity, culture, and countless opportunities. 

A healthy housing market is crucial when planning your next move, buying a new home in the area, or selling your current home. As well, a healthy housing market indicated a healthy economy. When you have both, towns like Chapel Hill, NC, can continue to grow and makes room and improvements for those interested in relocating. 

Single-family home

Gathering all information on your local housing market's current, past, and future trends are essential. So are you looking to move to Chapel Hill? In this guide, we'll dive into everything you need to know about the housing market before making a final decision! 

Chapel Hill Real Estate Trends 

Chapel Hill real estate trends graphic

Chapel Hill is always on the up and coming. With the University and local job hub, people are constantly choosing to relocate. Home to families, students, young professionals, and more, Chapel Hill, is extraordinarily diverse and welcoming to all. Chapel Hill encompasses a suburban feel, and most residents feel safe and a part of the community. 

Chapel Hill is currently experiencing a seller's market on the verge of becoming a balanced market. A seller's market is often more competitive because more people are looking to buy than homes available for sale. Sellers tend to price their homes on the higher end because they know the demand for property is higher. Homes often sell faster in a seller's market because buyers are also aware of the competition. When moving into a balanced market, the supply of homes and the demand for homes are roughly the same and are known to be more beneficial to buyers. 

The housing market in Chapel Hill is very competitive since homes in the area get multiple offers. The average home can sell for roughly 3% above the list price, and most go pending in about 33 days. Hot homes can sell for approximately 7% above the list price and go pending in seven days. 

Chapel Hill, NC, is a part of the Triangle region (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill), so it's also essential to research the housing market in the entire area. The Triangle region is no longer experiencing an extreme seller's market. A home's average on the market in the triangle was 42 days. 

Interest rates are another cause for concern across the triangle region. While the United States as a whole is seeing a high spike in rates, the triangle hasn't seen as extreme of a problem. Year-over-year price appreciation peaked earlier in the year at roughly 27%. Data from the local multiple listing service shows that price appreciation in the region was at 25.8% and 26% in Wake County in April 2022. Data on the primary mortgage market from Freddie Mac in September 2022 showed that the average rate of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.02%. The rise to above 6% may indicate that prices may fall again.

In this article, we're going to discuss current real estate trends in Chapel Hill, NC, including: 

  • Chapel Hill is currently experiencing a seller's market that is beginning to shift to a more balanced market 
  • Chapel Hill has a current population of approximately 63,705 people
  • The cost of living in Chapel Hill is 16% higher than the national average
  • There were 134 new listings in September 2022
  • The median home list price is approximately $650000

Chapel Hill Real Estate Demand 

Nearly 5,000 new people relocate to the triangle area every month. So as you can imagine, the demand for real estate is high and competitive. One of the reasons people move to the Chapel Hill area is the thriving economy. As said before, Chapel Hill is home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and is close to Duke and North Carolina State University. These schools ring in over $3 billion in federal funding annually.

Chapel Hill is also near the most important research centers in the country. Companies include Google and Facebook. Another reason people choose to move here is due to housing affordability. Although it can be seen as expensive to some, compared to other major American cities, the cost of living in Chapel Hill is still affordable to many. Lastly, the crime rate in Chapel Hill is less than half of what it is in the rest of the state. 

Chapel Hill real estate demand graphic

Population Growth 

Chapel Hill's current population is approximately 63,705 people. Since 2020, the area has had a population growth of 7.4%. Chapel Hill is growing at a rate of 0.76% annually, and the population has increased by 1.53% since the most recent US Census. Chapel Hill has a population density of 2,922 people per square mile. 

From July 2022 to September 2022; 

  • Across the nation, 0.92% of homebuyers searched to move into Chapel Hill from outside metros 
  • Fayetteville homebuyers searched to move into Chapel Hill more than any other metro
  • 76% of Chapel Hill homebuyers searched to stay within the Chapel Hill metropolitan area
  • Charlotte was the most popular destination among Chapel Hill homebuyers 

Chapel Hill Real Estate Supply 

As previously mentioned, the town of Chapel Hill is currently experiencing a seller's market like most of the triangle that is shifting to a more balanced market. With limited properties available, buyers must stay current on the local market trends. As a seller's market can be competitive for buyers, it's recommended that buyers act fast when they find the perfect home for them. 

Look at the most recent Multiple Listing Service data for the Chapel Hill/Carrboro area. In September 2022, there were 134 new listings in the area. Of those 134, there were 103 closed sales with a median sales price of $550,000 and an average sales price of $609,516. The month's supply of inventory was 1.5. Year-to-date new listings were 1,405 and closed sales were 1,204.

Chapel Hill real estate supply graphic

Looking at the entire Triangle region, there were 3,972 new listings in September 2022 and 3,542 closed sales with 1.8 months of supply inventory. The median sales price was $403,000, and the average sales price was $455,229. Year-to-date new listings were 39,357, with 32,870 closed sales. 

An article posted earlier in the year details a recent study from housing consultants that shows that the town needs to build roughly 485 new homes per year to keep up with demand and the growing population. The best way to tackle this problem is by focusing on the "missing middle" by building middle-income housing like townhomes, condos, and duplexes. 

Chapel Hill is working on providing housing opportunities for all. Their mission involves creating partnerships, catalyzing affordable housing, and building the community. Affordable housing in Chapel Hill means housing costs no more than 30% of the household income. To qualify for affordable housing, your household income must fall before 80% of the Area Median Income. Currently, the town owns and manages over 300 public affordable housing units for low-income residents. 

Chapel Hill Real Estate Pricing Trends 

Chapel Hill real estate pricing graphic

It is essential to consider the local pricing trends before deciding to move to a new area or sell your current home in hopes of finding another one. While Chapel Hill is working on providing more resources for affordable housing, it's also essential to tackle the current pricing trends. 

  • The median list price in September 2022 was roughly $650,000
  • The median home sold price was $595,000
  • List prices are up 17.2% year-over-year

The median list price for homes in Chapel Hill in September 2022 was $650,000, compared to $585,000 in 2021. 

Chapel Hill, NC, charges a property tax rate of 52.2 cents per $100 assessed property value. The property tax rate in Orange County is 0.69%, and the median annual property tax bill is $4,499.

51.83% of households in Chapel Hill are owner-occupied, while 48.17% of homes are renter-occupied. The average apartment rental price is $1,878, and the average size is approximately 956 square feet. Prices are as follows: 

  • $701 - $1,000: 1%
  • $1,001 - $1,500: 29%
  • $1,501 - $2,000: 43%
  • > $2,000: 27% 

The affordability of housing varies for everyone. The cost of homes varies depending on location, quality, size, and ownership. When planning a move to Chapel Hill, it is vital to look into the current, past, and future real estate market trends to ensure that you have the financial ability. Factors to consider include your salary, career, everyday expenses, size of family, etc. The cost of living in Chapel Hill, NC, is 16% higher than the national average. 

Chapel Hill neighborhoods graphic

Let's look further into the affordability of a few neighborhoods in Chapel Hill

A popular neighborhood in Chapel Hill that is often recommended is The Oaks. Homes in this neighborhood range in size and value. The median list price is $1,586,000 and averages $364 per square foot. 

Another popular neighborhood is The Winmore. The Winmore is one of the newest communities in Northwest Chapel Hill. Homes range in size, style, and value. The median list price is $739,940 and averages $245 per square foot. 

The Southern Village is a calming neighborhood that attracts many due to the school districts it feeds into. Homes in this neighborhood have a median list price of $550,000 and an average of $292 per square foot. 

Briar Chapel is one of the largest communities in Chapel Hill and provides a peaceful setting with easy access and commute to research triangle park and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The median list price of homes in this neighborhood is $714,861 and averages $259 per square foot. 

Last but not least, Governors Club is an award-winning neighborhood in Chapel Hill that features exquisite designs, landscapes, and amenities. The median list price of homes in this neighborhood is $1,348,122, averaging $272 per square foot. 

Chapel Hill has countless excellent neighborhoods to choose from. Check out our list of the best neighborhoods in Chapel Hill

Real Estate Predictions 

The housing market in Chapel Hill and the triangle area is beginning to shift to a more balanced market. While this favors buyers and sellers, prices continue to increase. Going into 2023, North Carolina will remain a top-ranked state and a prime relocation destination. With steady demand and population growth, prices will continue to rise or relatively stay the same. We see no indication of a market crash in the near future. 

Find Your Dream Home in Chapel Hill, NC

There's no doubt that the town of Chapel Hill will continue to grow and prosper. Being home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and its close distance to research triangle park continuously pushes people to relocate to the area. On top of the education and job opportunities, Chapel Hill provides residents with a suburban feel, an inclusive community, and amenities similar to large cities.

We created this guide for viewers in hopes that we can help ease the stress when planning your move to Chapel Hill. Keeping real estate trends in mind is crucial to ensure that you can comfortably decide to relocate without any sudden problems. So whether you're a first-time homebuyer or looking to downsize or upgrade, you will find your dream home in Chapel Hill. At Raleigh Realty, we take pride in our exceptional customer service and top-performing agents. Contact us or visit our website to view current properties and be connected to one of our agents! 

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Ryan Fitzgerald

Ryan Fitzgerald

Hi there! Nice to 'meet' you and thanks for visiting our Raleigh Real Estate Blog! My name is Ryan Fitzgerald, and I'm a REALTOR® in Raleigh-Durham, NC, the owner of Raleigh Realty. I work alongside some of the best Realtors in Raleigh. You can find more of my real estate content on Forbes, Wall Street Journal, U.S. News and more. Realtor Magazine named me a top 30 under 30 Realtor in the country (it was a long time ago haha). Any way, that's enough about me. I'd love to learn more about you if you'd like to connect with me on Facebook and Instagram or connect with our team at Raleigh Realty. Looking forward to connecting!